scenarios, futures, and knowledge management
Scenarios are narrative accounts of ways in which events may unfold. They may be curated accounts of past events for a learning purpose, fictional accounts that are derived from past events, for some learning or decision support purpose, or they may be extrapolations of the present to sketch out future possibilities, or they may be imagined, to enhance the preparedness, resilience and general sensemaking of an organisation or a community, and to consider new opportunities.
Scenarios in organisations are often thought to be future-oriented. Scenarios are used in futures thinking, which is a discipline that has existed for centuries and was formalized into a social science in the late 1960s. Scenario planning became popular in the oil and gas industry during the 1970s oil crisis, when sudden global economic shocks showed how unprepared for the unexpected these large corporations and their corporate planning functions were. Shell developed a well known methodology for developing possible scenarios, and the approach was popularised as a management tool for strategic thinking by Paul Shoemaker in 1995.
One of the misconceptions about scenario planning is that it attempts to predict the future to support future planning. It does not. It is intended simply to enlarge the "imagination space", to think through the implications of different possible events and outcomes, and to identify possible risks and opportunities, so that if these emerge in some form - not necessarily in the form of the scenario describing them - organisations will be better prepared, do not have to think them through from scratch, and may have some practical measures already in place. This approach is part of the Futures and Foresight discipline, which uses a number of tools and methods, and which embraces uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity in thinking about the future and in enhancing agility and adaptiveness. "Futures are mental models and stories we believe about the future".
But scenarios from past experience are also important in learning, and in knowledge management. In managing and transferring expertise and experience, scenarios can be constructed to embed the significant cognitive capabilities that very experienced people have, so that when novices work through a scenario in the form of a decision game, a simulation, or a critical incident review, they can be exposed to these capabilities and start to develop them for themselves: e.g. where to look for information cues pertaining to a challenge, how to spot weak signals, anomalies, or things that should be present but are now missing, how to join up the detail of what you are seeing with the big picture, how to extrapolate to different possible outcomes, etc. In this usage, scenarios can serve as a proxy for building experience in the field.
Past-oriented scenarios for knowledge building and learning have tended to be treated differently from future-oriented scenarios for foresight. However, the basic mechanisms in building and using both kinds of scenarios are the same:
In this panel with leading figures in knowledge management, cognitive psychology, scenario-building, futures and foresight, we will discuss the common elements in the use of scenarios for knowledge management and for foresight, and we will provide practical guidance for how to build scenarios more smartly and deploy them more effectively, to aid in sensemaking, knowledge representation, knowledge building, and adaptiveness.
Scenarios in organisations are often thought to be future-oriented. Scenarios are used in futures thinking, which is a discipline that has existed for centuries and was formalized into a social science in the late 1960s. Scenario planning became popular in the oil and gas industry during the 1970s oil crisis, when sudden global economic shocks showed how unprepared for the unexpected these large corporations and their corporate planning functions were. Shell developed a well known methodology for developing possible scenarios, and the approach was popularised as a management tool for strategic thinking by Paul Shoemaker in 1995.
One of the misconceptions about scenario planning is that it attempts to predict the future to support future planning. It does not. It is intended simply to enlarge the "imagination space", to think through the implications of different possible events and outcomes, and to identify possible risks and opportunities, so that if these emerge in some form - not necessarily in the form of the scenario describing them - organisations will be better prepared, do not have to think them through from scratch, and may have some practical measures already in place. This approach is part of the Futures and Foresight discipline, which uses a number of tools and methods, and which embraces uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity in thinking about the future and in enhancing agility and adaptiveness. "Futures are mental models and stories we believe about the future".
But scenarios from past experience are also important in learning, and in knowledge management. In managing and transferring expertise and experience, scenarios can be constructed to embed the significant cognitive capabilities that very experienced people have, so that when novices work through a scenario in the form of a decision game, a simulation, or a critical incident review, they can be exposed to these capabilities and start to develop them for themselves: e.g. where to look for information cues pertaining to a challenge, how to spot weak signals, anomalies, or things that should be present but are now missing, how to join up the detail of what you are seeing with the big picture, how to extrapolate to different possible outcomes, etc. In this usage, scenarios can serve as a proxy for building experience in the field.
Past-oriented scenarios for knowledge building and learning have tended to be treated differently from future-oriented scenarios for foresight. However, the basic mechanisms in building and using both kinds of scenarios are the same:
- Selection of significant events and narrative-building
- Identifying critical elements to be communicated/ discussed/ considered
- Building sensemaking capabilities (for individuals or organisations) to deal with tricky situations that are full of uncertainty, ambiguity, and conflicting, unreliable, or complex information
- A concern for plausibility and for creating useful insights
In this panel with leading figures in knowledge management, cognitive psychology, scenario-building, futures and foresight, we will discuss the common elements in the use of scenarios for knowledge management and for foresight, and we will provide practical guidance for how to build scenarios more smartly and deploy them more effectively, to aid in sensemaking, knowledge representation, knowledge building, and adaptiveness.
Panellists:
Dr Gary Klein is a cognitive psychologist who helped to initiate the Naturalistic Decision Making movement in 1989. His Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model has been tested and replicated several times. He also developed a Data/Frame model of sensemaking, and a Triple Path model of insight. His work relies on Cognitive Task Analysis methods that he and his team developed. In addition, he has formulated the Pre-Mortem method for identifying risks and the ShadowBox method for training cognitive skills. Scenarios for knowledge representation and knowledge building lie at the heart of much of his work. The 6 books he has authored (including the classic book Sources of Power) and the 3 he has co-edited have sold over 100,000 copies. He founded Klein Associates, Inc. in 1977 and sold it to Applied Research Associates in 2005. His latest book is Snapshots of the Mind, which is a series of essays on how decision makers handle uncertainty and complexity in the real world, and how to use methods such as training, information technology and artificial intelligence, teamwork, expertise transfer, and methods for developing insights. He started his new company, ShadowBox LLC, in 2014. Dr Matt Finch is an Associate Fellow at the Said Business School, University of Oxford, where he teaches scenario planning on the MBA and Executive MBA, and where he has served as Lead Facilitator on the award-winning Oxford Scenarios Programme. Matt works with companies, communities, and institutions to surface new ideas and bring them to action. His work spans policy consultation, foresight and strategic direction, community engagement, and professional development for staff at all levels
He has worked globally in the public, private, and non-profit sectors and in libraries and academia, and has advised clients across fields including healthcare, the law, education, and broadcast media. He has spoken in both the British House of Commons and the Australian Federal Parliament, and was a host of the OECD's 2020 Government After Shock pandemic podcast. Matt holds a PhD in Modern Intellectual History from the University of London and has written on scenario planning for academic, specialist, and popular publications. Dr Susann Roth is Chief of Knowledge Management at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), where she also leads on Futures and Foresight. ADB's knowledge and innovation management programs are tightly linked.
Susann led the development of ADB's new Knowledge Management Action Plan (KMAP) which moves ADB from transactional KM to transformational KM. Susann co-chairs ADB's Interim Knowledge Governance Group, and serves as member of the ADB Digital Innovation Sandbox Steering Committee. Her team coordinates the implementation of KMAP and has also set up ADB’s innovation hub. The innovation hub supports futures thinking and foresight, design thinking, decision making in complex contexts, institutional change management, and innovation- and knowledge ecosystem development in developing member countries. Susann regularly authors blogs, articles, and books chapters on foresight, KM and change management. Susann holds a MD degree and a PhD from the University of Heidelberg in Germany, and a Master of Public Health and Policy from the University of the Philippines. She completed her internships at Duke University, and Baylor College in the US and completed her research for a PhD at the University of Washington. She is trained in strategic foresight, change and knowledge management, digital transformation, adult learning and in corporate management. |
event details
Date/Time
Venue Type of Event Who should attend Fee |
Friday 21 April 2023, 7.00-8.30pm SGT (7.00am EDT, 12 midday UK, 7.00pm Manila)
This session was facilitated via Zoom. Attendance was free but prior registration was required. Case Discussion | Networking | Panel | Site Visit | Talk & Discussion | Workshop * * Knowledge and information managers, corporate and strategic planning teams, learning and development teams, organisation development teams, innovation and digital transformation teams. This session was free to all participants. |
Materials
Here are the session slides (with some slide notes) - download here.
The discussion in chat was also very lively, and included lots of useful references to reading, or videos to view. An edited version of the discussion notes is given here.
A lightly edited recording of the panel is given below, in three segments.
The discussion in chat was also very lively, and included lots of useful references to reading, or videos to view. An edited version of the discussion notes is given here.
A lightly edited recording of the panel is given below, in three segments.
- The panel discusses the ways in which scenarios seek to capitalize on existing knowledge, but acknowledge the uncertainties of the future.
- The panel discusses the benefits that working with scenarios can bring to individuals, teams and organizations.
- The panelists share some ideas for practical applications of scenarios in organizations.
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By continuing to use the ISKO Singapore website you are agreeing that ISKO Singapore may collect, use and disclose your personal data obtained by ISKO Singapore as a result of your use of the ISKO Singapore website. Please consult our data protection policy, including how you may access and correct your personal data or withdraw consent to the collection, use or disclosure of your personal data.